PERMITGRANTED RESEARCHThe Observatory Series · No. 1
The New Jersey Wave Report · Edition 1
59 New Jersey towns are pulling away from their own state's market
Published July 2026 · sales through 2025, the latest complete year of recorded deeds (arms-length transactions only; see Limitations) · snapshot 2026-07-06 · every figure reproducible from the reference block below · not investment advice
Every dot is a New Jersey town at its real location. The glowing towns are outperforming the statewide market, sized by momentum: red where rising prices lead the move, gold where transaction activity leads and prices have not yet caught up (the early ones). Gray dots are the rest of the state.
The biggest real-estate gains of the last decade were not made
by predicting the state of the market. They were made by being early to a handful of towns: Jersey City
before the waterfront filled in, Asbury Park before the boardwalk came back. By the time a town makes
headlines, the move is priced in. State and metro averages are how you miss it, because a statewide
number smooths the 59 towns that are actually moving into the 215 that are not.
This report measures every New Jersey town against the state's
own benchmark, a quarter-century deep, and names the ones pulling away right now, along with what happened
historically to towns that looked like them. It is built for anyone whose money depends on being early
rather than told: developers choosing where to buy land, lenders watching where collateral is
strengthening or softening, and owners deciding whether their town's headline is the beginning or the end
of the move.
Key findings
59 of 274 measured towns are outperforming the statewide market by at least 5% a year on our momentum score (a combined reading of home prices, sales volume, and building permits, each measured against the state; the mix per town is shown below), over the trailing three years (2023–2025). We classify these towns as heating.
38 towns crossed that outperformance threshold this year, including Paramus, Mantua, Jackson. The moment before a move is fully priced in is the moment it becomes one.
In the median outperforming town, home prices rose +3% more than the statewide benchmark over three years. That is the move you miss by watching state averages.
5% of comparable historical periods failed to sustain their momentum. For every current leader we publish the full set of comparable periods, including the failures. Momentum is common; durable momentum is not.
79 towns are underperforming the statewide market, led by Brigantine and Montclair.
How to read this reportThe momentum score is how far a town's market moved beyond (or behind) the statewide benchmark, per year, averaged over the trailing three years. It blends home prices, sales volume, and building permits, and each town's mix is shown so you can see what is driving it. Heating means at least +5% a year in excess of the state; underperforming means at least 2% a year behind it. The odds beside each town come from the most similar historical periods across every New Jersey town this quarter-century: how many went on to outpace the state, and how many fell behind. High momentum with weak odds is a speculation; high momentum with strong odds is a pattern.
Section 1
Why trust a ranking like this? Because it can be replayed.
Every number in this ranking is computed with records dated in or before the year shown, so the whole
history replays with no hindsight. Replayed to 2015, this exact method ranked Jersey City #2 in the state
and put Asbury Park in the top 6%, years before either was consensus. It also identified Asbury Park's 2005–07
condo boom as unsustainable: prices in that period went on to fall 16% more than the statewide market
through the downturn. In our statewide measurement, building-permit activity leads residential price
growth by about two years, which is why permit data is included wherever a town's records are complete
enough to be reliable.
LIVE IN THE PRODUCTThe replay is interactive on the site: drag the year back to any point since 2000 and see exactly what this ranking said then, for any town, with no hindsight. Replay the ranking →
LIVE IN THE PRODUCTThis table shows twelve towns; the live board ranks all 274, updates as records land, and opens the comparable historical periods behind any row. Open the full ranking →
Section 3
Town profiles: the twelve, one by one
Each chart shows the town's price path against a typical New
Jersey town starting from the same point, using the sales-ratio index (sale prices relative to assessed
values). The gap between the lines is the outperformance; the shaded band is the current three-year
window. Every profile ends with the same honesty check: what happened to towns that looked like this one.
1Aberdeen
momentum +30%/yrhome prices +1%/yrsales volume +58%/yr183 sales in 2025comparable periods 18 of 20 held up
Over the past three years Aberdeen's market moved +30% per year beyond the statewide benchmark. Home prices ran +1%/yr and sales volume +58%/yr ahead of the state. 183 homes traded in 2025, against 145 a decade earlier. Across the 20 historical periods most similar to Aberdeen right now, 5 went on to outpace the state over the following three years, 13 kept pace, and 2 fell behind (median outcome +2% versus the state). Those are the honest odds behind the headline.
GO DEEPERAberdeen's live profile updates as records land: the full comparable-period history, permit activity, and every parcel scored for what can be built. Open the live version →
2Asbury Park
momentum +20%/yrhome prices +2%/yrsales volume +38%/yr86 sales in 2025comparable periods 19 of 20 held up
Over the past three years Asbury Park's market moved +20% per year beyond the statewide benchmark. Home prices ran +2%/yr and sales volume +38%/yr ahead of the state. 86 homes traded in 2025, against 118 a decade earlier. Across the 20 historical periods most similar to Asbury Park right now, 4 went on to outpace the state over the following three years, 15 kept pace, and 1 fell behind (median outcome −1% versus the state). Those are the honest odds behind the headline.
GO DEEPERAsbury Park's live profile updates as records land: the full comparable-period history, permit activity, and every parcel scored for what can be built. Open the live version →
3Howell
momentum +17%/yrhome prices +0%/yrsales volume +46%/yrpermits +6%/yr786 sales in 2025comparable periods 20 of 20 held up
Over the past three years Howell's market moved +17% per year beyond the statewide benchmark. Home prices ran +0%/yr and sales volume +46%/yr ahead of the state, with building-permit activity at +6%/yr. Note the price line: it has not moved yet. Howell's reading is driven by transaction activity, and in our measurements activity of this kind tends to run ahead of price, not behind it. That is what an early-stage reading looks like, and also what makes it less certain than one confirmed by price. 786 homes traded in 2025, against 487 a decade earlier. Across the 20 historical periods most similar to Howell right now, 4 went on to outpace the state over the following three years, 16 kept pace, and 0 fell behind (median outcome −0% versus the state). Those are the honest odds behind the headline.
GO DEEPERHowell's live profile updates as records land: the full comparable-period history, permit activity, and every parcel scored for what can be built. Open the live version →
4Ridgefield Park
momentum +16%/yrhome prices −1%/yrsales volume +32%/yr70 sales in 2025comparable periods 18 of 20 held up
Over the past three years Ridgefield Park's market moved +16% per year beyond the statewide benchmark. Home prices ran −1%/yr and sales volume +32%/yr ahead of the state. Note the price line: it has not moved yet. Ridgefield Park's reading is driven by transaction activity, and in our measurements activity of this kind tends to run ahead of price, not behind it. That is what an early-stage reading looks like, and also what makes it less certain than one confirmed by price. 70 homes traded in 2025, against 58 a decade earlier. Across the 20 historical periods most similar to Ridgefield Park right now, 0 went on to outpace the state over the following three years, 18 kept pace, and 2 fell behind (median outcome −2% versus the state). Those are the honest odds behind the headline.
GO DEEPERRidgefield Park's live profile updates as records land: the full comparable-period history, permit activity, and every parcel scored for what can be built. Open the live version →
5Hackensack
momentum +15%/yrhome prices +2%/yrsales volume +28%/yr98 sales in 2025comparable periods 20 of 20 held up
Over the past three years Hackensack's market moved +15% per year beyond the statewide benchmark. Home prices ran +2%/yr and sales volume +28%/yr ahead of the state. 98 homes traded in 2025, against 170 a decade earlier. Across the 20 historical periods most similar to Hackensack right now, 2 went on to outpace the state over the following three years, 18 kept pace, and 0 fell behind (median outcome −2% versus the state). Those are the honest odds behind the headline.
GO DEEPERHackensack's live profile updates as records land: the full comparable-period history, permit activity, and every parcel scored for what can be built. Open the live version →
6Paramus
momentum +15%/yrhome prices −0%/yrsales volume +45%/yrpermits +1%/yr238 sales in 2025comparable periods 19 of 20 held up⚡ new this year
Over the past three years Paramus's market moved +15% per year beyond the statewide benchmark, crossing the outperformance threshold for the first time this year. Home prices ran −0%/yr and sales volume +45%/yr ahead of the state, with building-permit activity at +1%/yr. Note the price line: it has not moved yet. Paramus's reading is driven by transaction activity, and in our measurements activity of this kind tends to run ahead of price, not behind it. That is what an early-stage reading looks like, and also what makes it less certain than one confirmed by price. 238 homes traded in 2025, against 184 a decade earlier. Across the 20 historical periods most similar to Paramus right now, 3 went on to outpace the state over the following three years, 16 kept pace, and 1 fell behind (median outcome +1% versus the state). Those are the honest odds behind the headline.
GO DEEPERParamus's live profile updates as records land: the full comparable-period history, permit activity, and every parcel scored for what can be built. Open the live version →
7Mantua
momentum +15%/yrhome prices +1%/yrsales volume +38%/yrpermits +7%/yr121 sales in 2025comparable periods 20 of 20 held up⚡ new this year
Over the past three years Mantua's market moved +15% per year beyond the statewide benchmark, crossing the outperformance threshold for the first time this year. Home prices ran +1%/yr and sales volume +38%/yr ahead of the state, with building-permit activity at +7%/yr. 121 homes traded in 2025, against 125 a decade earlier. Across the 20 historical periods most similar to Mantua right now, 3 went on to outpace the state over the following three years, 17 kept pace, and 0 fell behind (median outcome −1% versus the state). Those are the honest odds behind the headline.
GO DEEPERMantua's live profile updates as records land: the full comparable-period history, permit activity, and every parcel scored for what can be built. Open the live version →
8Jackson
momentum +15%/yrhome prices −2%/yrsales volume −7%/yrpermits +55%/yr849 sales in 2025comparable periods 18 of 20 held up⚡ new this year
Over the past three years Jackson's market moved +15% per year beyond the statewide benchmark, crossing the outperformance threshold for the first time this year. Home prices ran −2%/yr and sales volume −7%/yr ahead of the state, with building-permit activity at +55%/yr. 849 homes traded in 2025, against 422 a decade earlier. Across the 20 historical periods most similar to Jackson right now, 0 went on to outpace the state over the following three years, 18 kept pace, and 2 fell behind (median outcome +1% versus the state). Those are the honest odds behind the headline.
GO DEEPERJackson's live profile updates as records land: the full comparable-period history, permit activity, and every parcel scored for what can be built. Open the live version →
9Surf City
momentum +15%/yrhome prices +1%/yrsales volume +28%/yr53 sales in 2025comparable periods 20 of 20 held up⚡ new this year
Over the past three years Surf City's market moved +15% per year beyond the statewide benchmark, crossing the outperformance threshold for the first time this year. Home prices ran +1%/yr and sales volume +28%/yr ahead of the state. 53 homes traded in 2025, against 52 a decade earlier. Across the 20 historical periods most similar to Surf City right now, 2 went on to outpace the state over the following three years, 18 kept pace, and 0 fell behind (median outcome +2% versus the state). Those are the honest odds behind the headline.
GO DEEPERSurf City's live profile updates as records land: the full comparable-period history, permit activity, and every parcel scored for what can be built. Open the live version →
10Mansfield
momentum +14%/yrhome prices +5%/yrsales volume +36%/yrpermits +2%/yr88 sales in 2025comparable periods 20 of 20 held up⚡ new this year
Over the past three years Mansfield's market moved +14% per year beyond the statewide benchmark, crossing the outperformance threshold for the first time this year. Home prices ran +5%/yr and sales volume +36%/yr ahead of the state, with building-permit activity at +2%/yr. 88 homes traded in 2025, against 107 a decade earlier. Across the 20 historical periods most similar to Mansfield right now, 2 went on to outpace the state over the following three years, 18 kept pace, and 0 fell behind (median outcome −1% versus the state). Those are the honest odds behind the headline.
GO DEEPERMansfield's live profile updates as records land: the full comparable-period history, permit activity, and every parcel scored for what can be built. Open the live version →
11Butler
momentum +14%/yrhome prices +2%/yrsales volume +46%/yrpermits −6%/yr98 sales in 2025comparable periods 19 of 20 held up⚡ new this year
Over the past three years Butler's market moved +14% per year beyond the statewide benchmark, crossing the outperformance threshold for the first time this year. Home prices ran +2%/yr and sales volume +46%/yr ahead of the state, with building-permit activity at −6%/yr. 98 homes traded in 2025, against 69 a decade earlier. Across the 20 historical periods most similar to Butler right now, 2 went on to outpace the state over the following three years, 17 kept pace, and 1 fell behind (median outcome −1% versus the state). Those are the honest odds behind the headline.
GO DEEPERButler's live profile updates as records land: the full comparable-period history, permit activity, and every parcel scored for what can be built. Open the live version →
12Jefferson
momentum +14%/yrhome prices +3%/yrsales volume +36%/yrpermits +3%/yr235 sales in 2025comparable periods 20 of 20 held up
Over the past three years Jefferson's market moved +14% per year beyond the statewide benchmark. Home prices ran +3%/yr and sales volume +36%/yr ahead of the state, with building-permit activity at +3%/yr. 235 homes traded in 2025, against 165 a decade earlier. Across the 20 historical periods most similar to Jefferson right now, 1 went on to outpace the state over the following three years, 19 kept pace, and 0 fell behind (median outcome +3% versus the state). Those are the honest odds behind the headline.
GO DEEPERJefferson's live profile updates as records land: the full comparable-period history, permit activity, and every parcel scored for what can be built. Open the live version →
Section 4
What this means
Developers: the towns that crossed the outperformance threshold this year are where site work done now precedes the repricing. Every town links to its comparable historical periods: what followed conditions like these, including the failures.
Lenders: the underperforming list is an early-warning read on softening collateral markets, at the town level. The same measurement runs in both directions.
Owners: if your town appears here, market conditions like yours have a measured history. Ask what followed them before acting on the headline.
This report is a snapshot. The system behind it is live.
Everything above renders from a live measurement system that
updates as records land. On the site, the same ranking is interactive: drag the year back and replay any
town's history with no hindsight, open the comparable historical periods behind any row, and pull a full
evidence report for any town in the state.
Sourcing land or deals? The same engine scores every parcel in our covered markets: what you can build by right, whether it pencils, and who is building nearby. Explore the live rankings →
Underwriting loans? The forward supply pipeline shows every sized project filed or building near your collateral, with estimated delivery, and the same ranking runs in reverse as an early-warning read on softening markets. See the lender tools →
Own property in one of these towns? Start with a free report on your own parcel: what it is worth, what could be built, and what this ranking means for your block. Run your address →
Section 5
Limitations, plainly
This edition measures one state (New Jersey), at town grain, from residential sale records and construction
permits. The sales data: from 2020 onward, every figure uses the state's recorded-deed sales files,
restricted to transactions the state itself classifies as arms-length (package deals, nominal family
transfers, and foreclosure-type conveyances are excluded at the source). Deed records are current through
the first quarter of 2026; 2025 is the latest complete year, so it is where the measurement ends.
Years before 2020 use assessment-roll sale histories, which keep only each parcel's latest sale, so older
years thin out. The price index uses each parcel's current assessed value as its quality control.
Building-permit data is included per town only where the records are complete enough that a new data
source coming online cannot masquerade as market momentum, and it runs through 2025. Town-level
averages smooth over neighborhood-scale moves; neighborhood-level measurement is in development. These
are measured associations, not causal claims, and not investment advice.
Methodology (abstract). For every town with at least a decade of qualifying data:
each indicator's yearly growth, less the statewide median growth that year (so statewide cycles and data-coverage
shifts cancel), averaged over the trailing three years and combined across indicators. Outperforming (heating) means at least +5%/yr in excess of
the benchmark; underperforming (cooling) means −2%/yr or more below it. Gates: ≥20 residential sales per cell; full 3-year windows required. The
permits-lead-prices result referenced above is our measurement across 524 municipalities (2001–2024),
detailed in "Do Building Permits Lead House Prices?". The premise that construction activity carries
forward-looking information is established economics: Case & Shiller (1989) on price momentum; Glaeser &
Gyourko (NBER w12787) on construction persistence; Leamer (NBER w13428) on housing as the cycle's best
early indicator.